ECAA Decision Tracker

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Find your place in the queue

Select your application month to see your cohort status and estimated clearance.

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How this estimate works

Official application totals set the queue size, community reports show where regular decisions are visible, and recent processing pace produces the forecast.

Official application volume

Sets the number of applications in the queue.

Community decision reports

Shows where regular decisions are currently visible.

Model calculations

Turns the queue ahead and recent pace into forecast dates.

How large is the queue?

Absolute application counts come from dated Home Office volume.

Where is decision activity visible?

The latest original application date with repeated recent support.

How quickly is the queue moving?

Recent supported queue progress, measured on England and Wales working days.

How modelled queue progress has changed

How does this become my estimated date?

Official applications ahead and recent supported processing sequences produce the published paths for your application-date cohort.

How do other application dates compare?

Compare Fast, Central, and Slow dates across supported application dates and months.

Monthly forecast timeline

The band covers every application day in each month. Its edges show Fast and Slow, with Central between them.

Monthly forecast dates
* Estimated input volume

Methodology and sources

How the forecast is calculated and which evidence it uses.

Sources

Official records set queue volume. Estimates and community reports have separate roles.

Used forOfficial quarterly LTR application total
Official published data

Visa statistics, Q1 2026 (VSI_01a)

Publisher
Home Office and UK Visas and Immigration
Published
21 May 2026
Coverage
January to March 2026
Open source
Used forILR queue volume and monthly queue shape
Supplied FOI material

ECAA ILR queue: FOI Annex B

Publisher
Home Office
Published
28 February 2026
Coverage
September 2025 to March 2026
Used forMonthly LTR intake: quarterly totals split into thirds
Derived from official data

Monthly LTR allocation

Publisher
ECAA Decision Tracker calculation
Published
28 August 2026
Coverage
September 2025 to October 2026
Open source
Used forEstimated ILR and LTR application volume
Explicit model assumption

ECAA application estimate, Q2 2026

Publisher
Project-supplied estimate
Published
28 August 2026
Coverage
April to June 2026
Used forEstimated ILR and LTR application volume
Derived from official data

Five-year cohort conversion, Q3 2026

Publisher
ECAA Decision Tracker calculation
Published
26 July 2026
Coverage
July to September 2026
Used forActivity location and relative clearance patterns
Community-reported evidence

ECAA community decision tracker

Publisher
Self-reporting ECAA applicants
Published
Current validated snapshot
Coverage
Reported application and result dates through this snapshot
Used forWorking-day calendar
Official published data

Bank holidays in England and Wales

Publisher
GOV.UK
Published
Retrieved for the maintained model calendar
Coverage
Model calendar through 31 December 2028.
Open source
Used forPeople-to-application conversion: 2.25 people per main application
Explicit model assumption

People per main application

Publisher
ECAA Decision Tracker model configuration
Published
No external publication date — explicit product assumption
Coverage
All modelled application months